# Full Panel Mediation: Diagnosing Sample Composition vs Mediation

| Variable | M1: Full | M2: Tri sample | M3: Z + Tri | M4: Tri only |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 11.9639 | 6.4161 | 5.9803 | |
| | (12.9547) | (10.9314) | (10.9466) | |
| Z_2 | -0.6347 | 0.3894 | 0.4457 | |
| | (1.9762) | (1.6912) | (1.6921) | |
| Z_3 | -0.0038 | -0.0490 | -0.0512 | |
| | (0.0811) | (0.0701) | (0.0701) | |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.3594*** | 0.3587*** | 0.3599*** | 0.3502*** |
| | (0.0286) | (0.0351) | (0.0351) | (0.0356) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.8365*** | 0.2129 | 0.2185 | 0.9756*** |
| | (0.2241) | (0.2409) | (0.2405) | (0.2309) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.1675*** | 0.2324*** | 0.2322*** | 0.2234*** |
| | (0.0169) | (0.0217) | (0.0218) | (0.0220) |
| mi_index | | | -0.8247 | -2.4139*** |
| | | | (0.8941) | (0.8846) |
| ers_index | | | 0.1546 | 0.6159 |
| | | | (0.6313) | (0.6351) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 6352 | 4344 | 4344 | 4344 |
| R² | 0.1018 | 0.1112 | 0.1135 | 0.0874 |
| Countries | 190 | 149 | 149 | 149 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. M1 uses full multilateral panel. M2-M4 restrict to observations with trilemma data available. Key diagnostic: if Z₁ drops from M1→M2, the issue is sample composition, not mediation.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*